Why Dion Waiters was always going to fail
The NBA of today is extremely different when compared to the league 30-40 years ago. As more and more seasons have been played, data analysts get more and more information to try and determine what style of basketball is the most successful.
Whatever the style of basketball is the most successful, it makes sense that the players that are in the most demand are those with the styles that complement the current culture of the NBA. Players that might have been really good 30 years ago are not as valuable today.
That is the case of Dion Waiters.
Waiters looked promising in his first 2 seasons when he was with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He was an energetic 6th man who showed the potential to lead the 2nd unit. However, as time progressed it became more and more obvious that Waiters was not cut out for today’s NBA, and here’s why.
Shooting
The biggest change we’ve seen over the past 10 years is the huge increase in the number of 3-pointers taken per game. In the 2009-10 season, the attempt rate of 3-pointers was 22.2% meaning 22.2% of field-goals attempted were 3s. This past season (2019-20) that rate was 37.7%.
The rate has increased every year so far and that trend looks set to continue. The biggest reason why the 3 has become so important is that it has a high points-per-shot value. The most efficient in the NBA is a layup. This has an average of 1.20 points per attempt. The 2nd most efficient shot is the corner 3, which has an average of 1.10-1.20 points per attempt. A mid-range jumper only has an average of 0.85 points per shot, so you can see why teams are building their offense to shoot the 3.
Dion Waiters, a shooting guard, is not a good 3-point shooter.
His career average is only 34.8%, a number that is simply not good enough for today’s NBA. Floor-spacing is key so there is more room for shots at the rim. Waiters has failed to develop his outside shot to the point where he fits the current NBA.
Isolation
The consummate example of an excellent NBA offense is the brilliance of Greg Popovich. He truly understands what goes into a good offense; ball movement, all 5 players feeling involved, good screening and good communication.
Dion Waiters is more of a 1 on 1 player. He likes to good try and beat his defender without the initial ball movement. If you’re Michael Jordan or LeBron James then that’s ok, but if you only have the talent level of Waiters then not so much.
Waiters is the type of guy that will be hot and score 35 one game, then go cold for the next 5 and only score 10 points while still taking bad shots. I thought that when LeBron rejoined Cleveland in 2014 that Waiters would hugely benefit since he would have a lot of easy shots, but no, he was actually worse. He only shot 40.4% from the field with LeBron, which was why he was traded after 33 games.
All the signs pointed to Waiters not having a great NBA career. His athleticism carried him at the start of time in basketball, but now that it has started to fade his playstyle is getting exposed. He signed with the Lakers having been waived by the Memphis Grizzlies and I have a strong inclination that we won’t be asked back after this season.